Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Lars Leszczensky, Tobias Wolbring
Summary: This article discusses the issue of reverse causality in panel data analysis, highlighting the challenges it poses to causal inference based on conventional models. Although alternative solutions have been proposed, they have faced criticisms. Researchers need to find suitable panel models to address reverse causality and the issue of misspecified temporal lags.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Economics
Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens
Summary: This paper examines the estimation and inference of average treatment effects in panel data, particularly focusing on the staggered adoption setting. The study shows that under random assignment of adoption dates, the standard Difference-In-Differences (DID) estimator is an unbiased estimator of a specific weighted average causal effect, and characterizes the exact finite sample properties of this estimand. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the standard variance estimator tends to be conservative.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2022)
Article
Economics
David Powell
Summary: This paper introduces a quantile regression estimator for panel data with nonadditive fixed effects and a nonseparable disturbance term. It uses within variation in the instruments to estimate the impact of exogenous or endogenous treatment variables on the outcome distribution. Unlike most quantile panel data estimators, the proposed estimator produces consistent estimates for small T. The paper also estimates the effect of the 2008 tax rebates on the short-term household consumption distribution.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Adam Hale Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, Daniel J. Wilson
Summary: This paper demonstrates state-of-the-art text sentiment analysis tools and develops a new time-series measure of economic sentiment using economic and financial newspaper articles. The study compares the predictive accuracy of various sentiment analysis models and proposes a more accurate sentiment-scoring model. The research findings show that daily news sentiment is related to consumer sentiment measures and positive sentiment shocks have an impact on macroeconomic variables.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2022)
Review
Business, Finance
Fan Fang, Carmine Ventre, Michail Basios, Leslie Kanthan, David Martinez-Rego, Fan Wu, Lingbo Li
Summary: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of 146 research papers on various aspects of cryptocurrency trading, including trading systems, bubble and extreme conditions, prediction of volatility and return, portfolio construction, etc. It also analyzes datasets and research trends, concluding with some promising opportunities in cryptocurrency trading.
FINANCIAL INNOVATION
(2022)
Article
Economics
Stefano DellaVigna, Elizabeth Linos
Summary: Nudge interventions have been widely implemented in both academic studies and government units. However, there are significant differences in the impact of nudges between these two settings. This study compares data from 126 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted by Nudge Units and academic journals, and identifies three factors contributing to the differences: statistical power, characteristics of the interventions, and selective publication. The findings suggest that selective publication and low statistical power are the major contributors to the disparities, while variation in nudge characteristics explains the remaining differences.
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Daniel Schneider, Kristen Harknett
Summary: This article examines the use of Facebook targeted advertisements for survey data collection, showcasing the potential for survey sampling and recruitment on the platform through The Shift Project. The workflow process of purchasing survey recruitment advertisements on Facebook is described, addressing sample selectivity concerns. By comparing data from different sources, the relationship between firm-level data and wages is explored.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Carlos Cinelli, Andrew Forney, Judea Pearl
Summary: This paper introduces graphical tools for addressing the problem of bad control and aims to make these tools accessible to a broader community of scientists concerned with the causal interpretation of regression models.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Economics
Clement de Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille
Summary: Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are commonly used to estimate the effects of policies. However, recent research has shown that these regressions may produce misleading estimates if the effects of policies vary between different groups or over time. Therefore, alternative estimators robust to heterogeneous effects have been proposed in a growing literature. This survey uses these alternative estimators to reexamine a previous study by Wolfers ().
ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL
(2023)
Article
Economics
Xiaodong Yang, Jianlong Wang, Jianhong Caona, Siyu Renna, Qiying Ran, Haitao Wu
Summary: Air pollution is a significant factor affecting the quality and sustainability of China's economy, with fiscal decentralization and urban sprawl playing a major role in contributing to this issue. Research indicates significant regional heterogeneity in the influence of urban sprawl and fiscal decentralization on air pollution, with both direct and indirect effects being observed.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis, Thomas K. Lee
Summary: We evaluated alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production emerged as the most useful indicator, but combining measures from different sources can yield better results. Our analysis led to the development of a new index for global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We demonstrated their usefulness in quantifying the main factors behind the global economic contraction and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor
Summary: Major pandemics have long-term effects on the economy, depressing rates of return on assets for decades. Unlike wars, pandemics may induce labor scarcity or increased precautionary savings.
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Ryan Smith, Karl J. Friston, Christopher J. Whyte
Summary: The active inference framework, particularly its formulation as a POMDP, has become increasingly popular for modeling neurocognitive processes. This paper provides a step-by-step tutorial on building POMDPs, running simulations, and fitting models to empirical data. It aims to equip the reader with the necessary background and tools to apply active inference to their own research.
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Economics
Dennis Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus, Michael Walker
Summary: This study examines the effects of large economic stimuli on individuals and the overall economy, and provides meaningful insights through an experiment conducted in rural Kenya. The results show that cash transfers have significant impacts on consumption and assets for recipients, and also generate positive spillover effects on non-recipient households and firms, with minimal inflation.
Review
Economics
Ernst-Jan de Bruijn, Gerrit Antonides
Summary: The research indicates that poverty leads to overborrowing and more consistent consumption decisions, but the evidence regarding the reduced mental bandwidth due to poverty is inconclusive. While the scarcity theory provides an explanation for the relationship between financial scarcity and economic decision making, further theoretical and empirical work is needed to strengthen the theory.
THEORY AND DECISION
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Xian Zhao, Xiaofei Chai, Jinglei Sun, Qingan Qiu
Summary: This article proposes a condition-based mission abort policy for safety-critical systems. The policy terminates a mission and initiates a rescue procedure immediately if the system state is worse than a control limit. The article evaluates mission reliability and system survivability to analyze the risk of mission failure and system failure. It also explores the optimal mission abort threshold and the joint optimization of mission abort and protective device selection policies.
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Christian Welzel, Lennart Brunkert, Stefan Kruse, Ronald F. Inglehart
Summary: Scholars study international surveys to understand cross-cultural differences, but there are issues with interpreting the non-invariance of construct items in different national samples. In fact, the non-invariance mainly comes from the arithmetic of closed-ended scales and does not imply cultural differences in semantic terms. Therefore, non-invariance does not have a practical impact on the cross-cultural validity of multi-item constructs.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ortwin Renn, Manfred Laubichler, Klaus Lucas, Wolfgang Kroger, Jochen Schanze, Roland W. Scholz, Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Summary: This article addresses the challenges of systemic risks and highlights the importance of interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral perspectives in understanding and governing these risks. It emphasizes the need for integrating complexity modeling tools with empirical data and evidence-based insights to provide effective governance advice. The article also suggests assessing systemic risks through multiple indicators and diverse scenarios. Lastly, it emphasizes the necessity of interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral cooperation, close monitoring, and engagement of scientists, regulators, and stakeholders in the governance of systemic risks.
Article
Economics
Simon Gaechter, Eric J. Johnson, Andreas Herrmann
Summary: Loss aversion can be observed in both riskless and risky choices, with similar levels in a sample of customers of a car manufacturer. There is substantial heterogeneity in measures of loss aversion, and it tends to increase with age, income, and wealth while decreasing with education level. The results provide novel supportive evidence for the debate on the reality of loss aversion.
THEORY AND DECISION
(2022)
Article
Economics
Andreas Olden, Jarle Moen
Summary: Triple difference is a commonly used estimator in empirical economics research, but its theoretical foundation and assumptions are not universally agreed upon. This paper provides a comprehensive presentation of the triple difference estimator and shows that a causal interpretation can be achieved with just one parallel trend assumption.
ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL
(2022)
