Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Opinion dynamics of online social network users: a micro-level analysis

Ivan V. Kozitsin

Summary: This empirical study examines the opinion dynamics of a large-scale sample of online social network users. The findings reveal the positive effect of friendship connections on the dynamics of user opinions and their relationship with opinion distance.

JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL SOCIOLOGY (2023)

Article Economics

Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas

Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast, Davin Reed

Summary: We examine the local impacts of new market-rate housing in low-income areas by analyzing microdata on large apartment complexes, rents, and migration patterns. The presence of new buildings leads to a 6% decrease in rents for nearby units compared to those at slightly further distances or developed later, while also attracting an influx of residents from low-income areas. We find that new housing constructions tend to attract high-income households and significantly increase the local housing supply. However, the impact on rent increase is not substantial even with amenity improvements, which might be due to the fact that most new constructions target neighborhoods that are already undergoing changes or may create negative effects, such as congestion.

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Method to the Madness: Tracking and Interviewing Respondents in a Longitudinal Study of Prisoner Reentry

Chantal Fahmy, Kendra J. Clark, Meghan M. Mitchell, Scott H. Decker, David C. Pyrooz

Summary: This article details the use of longitudinal studies to understand the reentry experiences of formerly incarcerated individuals in the U.S. It highlights the challenges in retaining this population for interviews and proposes strategies to build rapport, complete interviews, and minimize attrition. Results indicate that contact with respondents through appointment reminders and other reciprocal modes leads to higher engagement and interview completion rates.

SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Homogeneity Assumptions in the Analysis of Dynamic Processes

Siwei Liu, Kathleen M. M. Gates, Emilio Ferrer

Summary: With the increasing use of time series data in human research, researchers now have the ability to explore dynamic processes more than ever before. Dr. Peter Molenaar's work has provided insight into individual-level analysis for processes that may differ across individuals to varying degrees. This paper introduces a clear taxonomy for the assumptions made in these analyses, ranging from strict homogeneity to no homogeneity, and demonstrates these assumptions using empirical data on daily emotions in couples.

MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH (2023)

Article Economics

A Linear Estimator for Factor-Augmented Fixed-T Panels With Endogenous Regressors

Arturas Juodis, Vasilis Sarafidis

Summary: A novel method is proposed for estimating factor-augmented panel data models with endogenous regressors. The method approximates the unobserved common factors using observed factor proxies and employs linear moment conditions to address issues with existing estimators. Application to empirical data on urban water demand confirms the good performance of the proposed method.

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS (2022)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

But They Told Us It Was Safe! Carbon Dioxide Removal, Fracking, and Ripple Effects in Risk Perceptions

Emily Cox, Nick Pidgeon, Elspeth Spence

Summary: Reaching net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require a range of new technologies and approaches, but negative perceptions towards CO2 removal technologies due to risk perceptions and policy controversies surrounding shale gas and fracking could hinder societal agreement. Participants' attitudes are influenced by deeper mistrust towards experts and policymakers, potentially undermining trust in the safety and efficacy of CO2 removal technologies.

RISK ANALYSIS (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

A Response-Time-Based Latent Response Mixture Model for Identifying and Modeling Careless and Insufficient Effort Responding in Survey Data

Esther Ulitzsch, Steffi Pohl, Lale Khorramdel, Ulf Kroehne, Matthias von Davier

Summary: Careless and insufficient effort responding (C/IER) poses a threat to data quality and validity of inferences drawn from questionnaire data. A model-based approach is presented to detect various manifestations of C/IER by utilizing response time information and theoretical considerations. The approach considers individual differences in response behavior, allows for variations in attentiveness, and deals with different response patterns arising from C/IER.

PSYCHOMETRIKA (2022)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

A Precautionary Assessment of Systemic Projections and Promises From Sunlight Reflection and Carbon Removal Modeling

Sean Low, Matthias Honegger

Summary: Climate change is a systemic risk, and recent proposals for large-scale interventions are redefining climate governance strategies. Evolving modeling practices tend to portray optimistic and best-case projections, which may reinforce the inertia of the carbon economy and entrench carbon infrastructures.

RISK ANALYSIS (2022)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

It's Politics, Isn't It? Investigating Direct and Indirect Influences of Political Orientation on Risk Perception of COVID-19

Youngkee Ju, Myoungsoon You

Summary: Public response to the COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to study risk perception in relation to political orientation. In South Korea, conservatives showed higher risk perception regarding an emerging infectious disease, with political orientation moderating the influence of perceived risk characteristics. Media use frequency was positively related to higher risk perception.

RISK ANALYSIS (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Optimal investment and reinsurance strategies under 4/2 stochastic volatility model

Wenyuan Wang, Dmitry Muravey, Yang Shen, Yan Zeng

Summary: This paper studies the mean-variance investment-reinsurance problem under a new stochastic volatility model and provides closed-form solutions by analyzing a class of parabolic partial differential equations. The findings have important applications in determining efficient strategies and efficient frontiers.

SCANDINAVIAN ACTUARIAL JOURNAL (2023)

Article Economics

Estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects With High-Dimensional Data

Qingliang Fan, Yu-Chin Hsu, Robert P. Lieli, Yichong Zhang

Summary: This study proposes new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect function, with the nuisiance functions estimated by machine learning in the first stage and local linear regression in the second stage. The functional limit theory is derived and a uniform inference procedure based on multiplier bootstrap is provided. The empirical application examines the effect of maternal smoking on a baby's birth weight as a function of the mother's age.

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS (2022)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

The Problem of Scaling in Exponential Random Graph Models

Scott W. Duxbury

Summary: This study reveals the potential problems of residual variation in exponential random graph models (ERGM) and proposes a flexible methodological framework to overcome these issues. Simulation results demonstrate that realistic levels of residual variation can significantly affect ERGM inference. Additionally, formal tests of mediation and moderation are introduced and applied to examine the relationship between selective mixing and triadic closure in a friendship network. Extensions to other classes of statistical work models are also discussed.

SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH (2023)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

Making Things Possible

Gabriel Abend

Summary: The question of what makes something possible is a distinct and important type of sociological research question. It focuses on the enabling factors and relationships rather than the causes and causal relationships of a social phenomenon. This type of research provides a unique perspective on social phenomena, highlighting that the social world is not predetermined, and it opens up new avenues for further study.

SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH (2022)

Article Economics

The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Juliana Londono-Velez, Pablo Querubin

Summary: The study finds that the unconditional cash transfer program implemented during the pandemic has a positive impact on household well-being and promotes support for emergency assistance and social cooperation. Additionally, the study explores the challenges in expanding mobile money during a pandemic.

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Robust reinsurance contract with asymmetric information in a stochastic Stackelberg differential game

Yu Yuan, Zhibin Liang, Xia Han

Summary: This paper determines a robust reinsurance contract under the framework of a Stackelberg differential game, prioritizing the joint interests of the insurer and reinsurer. It incorporates measures to defend against model uncertainty and shows that the reinsurer's optimal premium control is determined by a time-adjusted variance principle. The analysis emphasizes the importance of considering model uncertainty to prevent significant loss for the reinsurance company.

SCANDINAVIAN ACTUARIAL JOURNAL (2022)

Article Economics

Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index1

Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, Mihir Trivedi

Summary: This paper introduces a weekly economic index (WEI) to monitor the rapid economic changes in the United States associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The WEI, a weekly composite index of real economic activity, has strong predictive power for output measures and accurately forecasted GDP growth in the first half of 2020.

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS (2022)

Correction Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

META-ANALYTIC GAUSSIAN NETWORK AGGREGATION (July, 10.1007/s11336-021-09764-3, 2021)

Sacha Epskamp, Adela-Maria Isvoranu, Mike W. -L. Cheung

PSYCHOMETRIKA (2022)

Article Economics

Interpreting OLS Estimands When Treatment Effects Are Heterogeneous: Smaller Groups Get Larger Weights

Tymon Sloczynski

Summary: This study explores the interpretation of OLS estimands in linear models with binary treatment variable and heterogeneous treatment effects. The author shows that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of the average treatment effects on treated and untreated units. It is found that reliance on implicit weights can have serious consequences for applied work, and diagnostic tools are developed to address this issue.

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (2022)

Article Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

A Comparison of Peer Influence Estimates from SIENA Stochastic Actor-based Models and from Conventional Regression Approaches

Daniel T. Ragan, D. Wayne Osgood, Nayan G. Ramirez, James Moody, Scott D. Gest

Summary: This study compares the estimates of peer influence from an analytic approach that addresses network processes with those from traditional approaches. The findings indicate that both methods are subject to bias and imprecision, and there is no indication that conventional methods tend to overestimate peer influence compared to SIENA.

SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH (2022)

Article Economics

Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non-Employed

R. Jason Faberman, Andreas Mueller, Aysegul Sahin, Giorgio Topa

Summary: This article introduces a unique survey that focuses on the job search behavior of individuals and investigates the relationship between search effort and outcomes for both the employed and non-employed. The study reveals three important facts: on-the-job search is widespread and more intense at lower job levels, the employed are more effective in job search compared to the unemployed, and the employed receive better job offers. By developing a general equilibrium model and calibrating it to fit the survey findings, the research shows that the search effort of the employed is highly elastic and significantly amplifies labor market responses to productivity shocks over the business cycle.

ECONOMETRICA (2022)