Article
Economics
Feiyu Jiang, Zifeng Zhao, Xiaofeng Shao
Summary: In this paper, a piecewise linear trend model is used to model the trajectory of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases and deaths. The model captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate and provides interpretability due to its semiparametric nature. The self-normalization technique is advanced for testing and estimation of change-points in the linear trend of a nonstationary time series. Multiple change-point estimation is achieved through the combination of SN-based change-point test and the NOT algorithm. The proposed method is applied to analyze the trajectory of COVID-19 cases and deaths for 30 major countries, revealing interesting patterns and potential implications for pandemic responses.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Connor J. McCabe, Max A. Halvorson, Kevin M. King, Xiaolin Cao, Dale S. Kim
Summary: Psychology research often involves studying probabilities and counts using generalized linear models (GLMs). Interactions in GLMs describing probabilities and counts are not equal to product terms between predictor variables, requiring nontraditional approaches to accurately interpret these effects. This paper introduces the use of partial derivatives and discrete differences to quantify and interpret interaction effects in GLMs, and provides guidelines and simulated examples for estimating and interpreting these effects on probability and count scales.
MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Mario L. Small, Jenna M. Cook
Summary: This article examines the challenges in interview research of assessing whether what people say motivated their actions actually did so. It identifies at least five challenges and more than a dozen strategies that have been deployed to address them. The article argues that researchers need to consider each challenge, use appropriate strategies, and evaluate their effectiveness to uncover motivation. This work helps strengthen the scientific foundations of in-depth interview research.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Tobias Ruttenauer
Summary: This study summarizes the commonly used spatial regression models, comparing their performance through Monte Carlo experiments. It finds that spatial Durbin specifications (SDM and SDEM) and simple spatial lag of X (SLX) provide more accurate estimates of direct impacts compared to spatial autoregressive and spatial error specifications, even in cases of misspecification. Additionally, the study reveals that in certain realistic scenarios, SLX outperforms the more complex SDM and SDEM specifications for indirect spillover effects.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Rachel Rinaldo, Jeffrey Guhin
Summary: Recent debates on qualitative methods have examined the limitations and contributions of interviews compared to surveys and participant observation. However, little consideration has been given to how ethnographers themselves use interviews in their work. This article argues that Lizardo's discussion of the three modes of culture can help us better understand the distinct contributions of observation and interviews, with ethnographic interviews being particularly valuable for accessing different cultural modes. The authors also propose dividing Lizardo's conception of public culture into meso- and macrolevels, which helps highlight the varying contributions of interviews within and outside an ethnographic context. Drawing on ethnographic research and analysis, the article demonstrates how using ethnographic interviews can enhance sociologists' understanding of the interaction between these four cultural modes.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Mecit Can Emre Simsekler, Abroon Qazi
Summary: Medical errors pose high risks to patients. Limited research is available regarding the probabilistic interdependencies between organizational factors and patient safety errors. This study uses a data-driven Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model to explore the relationships between organizational factors and patient safety errors, and identifies health and well-being and bullying and harassment in the work environment as the two leading factors influencing patient safety.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Jonas M. B. Haslbeck, Oisin Ryan
Summary: Idiographic modeling is gaining popularity for accessing within-person dynamics in psychological phenomena, but making inferences to underlying systems from time series models is challenging, and insufficient sampling frequency can impact recovery of dynamics of interest. However, global characteristics of the system can still be reliably recovered.
MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Economics
David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Nicholas Parker
Summary: This study elicits subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes in the future. The results show that firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Furthermore, firm-level subjective uncertainty predicts the magnitudes of future forecast errors and revisions. The study also finds that subjective uncertainty increases with the firm's absolute growth rate in the previous year and recent revisions to its expected growth rate. The researchers construct monthly indices of business expectations and uncertainty for the U.S. private sector.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Juntao Wang, Ningzhong Shi, Xue Zhang, Gongjun Xu
Summary: In this study, a computationally efficient sequential Gibbs sampling method is proposed for estimating cognitive diagnosis models, which outperforms existing methods.
MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Economics
Xiao Ke, Cheng Hsiao
Summary: This paper evaluates the economic consequences of the 76-day lockdown policy in Hubei Province during the COVID-19 pandemic. The strict lockdown had a significant negative impact on the economy, but it also effectively controlled the spread of the virus. After the lockdown was lifted, the economy in Hubei quickly recovered, with the exception of the passenger transportation sector.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Tobias Ruttenauer, Volker Ludwig
Summary: Fixed effects (FE) panel models have been widely used in research to control for stable heterogeneity between units. However, conventional FE models may produce biased results when there are heterogeneous slopes or growth curves related to the parameter of interest. This study introduces fixed effects individual slope (FEIS) models to overcome this issue and proposes two versions of the Hausman test to detect misspecification in FE models.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Adrian Dusa
Summary: The objective of qualitative comparative analysis is to find solutions that meet the conditions for a desired outcome, while being as simple as possible. Different search strategies lead to different types of solutions, and there is an ongoing debate on which type is closest to the true causal structure. This article introduces the logics behind each simplification system, explores the concept of robust sufficiency, and provides improved procedures to measure correctness.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Josh Pacewicz
Summary: This article analyzes the distinction between theoretically and empirically oriented ethnography in case selection and external validity claims. By examining several exemplary ethnographies, the study presents optimized strategies for each orientation.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Economics
Ying-Ying Shen, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Jun-Chao Ma, Gang-Jin Wang, Wei-Xing Zhou
Summary: This study reveals the risk-transmitting pathways within different economic sectors in China, identifying sectors that act as risk transmitters and risk takers. It also shows that during extreme risk events, such as the global financial crisis and the China-US trade war, the financial sectors play a crucial role in stabilizing the economic system.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Luis Vila-Henninger, Claire Dupuy, Virginie Van Ingelgom, Mauro Caprioli, Ferdinand Teuber, Damien Pennetreau, Margherita Bussi, Cal Le Gall
Summary: The study examines the use of abductive approach in qualitative secondary analysis, proposing new tactics for its concrete implementation. It focuses on the development of code equations as a key resource for qualitative analysts to build theory by operationalizing phenomena that span individual codes.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Roel Rutten
Summary: This article connects QCA's substantive-interpretation approach of causality to critical realism and validates the validity of causal claims in large-N QCA studies through robustness tests.
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Oisin Ryan, Ellen L. Hamaker
Summary: Network analysis of ESM data in clinical psychology is popular, with researchers using DT-VAR models to define network structure. However, VAR models have time-interval dependency issues. This paper proposes a CT network approach using CT-VAR models, introducing new centrality measures for intervention targeting.
Article
Economics
Andrii Babii, Eric Ghysels, Jonas Striaukas
Summary: This article introduces structured machine learning regressions for high-dimensional time series data, presenting the sparse-group LASSO estimator that can effectively utilize the data structure and outperform the unstructured LASSO. Empirical applications show that the estimator performs favorably compared to other alternatives, especially in predicting US GDP growth.
JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Carmen Ximenez, Alberto Maydeu-Olivares, Dexin Shi, Javier Revuelta
Summary: The behavior of fit indices in CFA models depends on factors such as model size, sample size, and measurement quality. Biased estimators of fit indices result in unstable behavior with changing sample size, making it difficult to establish cutoff values. Unbiased estimators, on the other hand, match the behavior of population parameters and depend on the average R-2 of observed variables and model size.
STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING-A MULTIDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ling Tan, Xianhua Wu, Ji Guo, Ernesto D. R. Santibanez-Gonzalez
Summary: The article describes how to use a Computable General Equilibrium model to assess the potential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the Chinese economy and various sectors, and proposes corresponding measures and suggestions.
