期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 41, 期 3, 页码 1026-1034出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058650
关键词
ocean wave height; CMIP5 simulations; statistical downscaling; multivariate regression; climate change; generalized extreme value distribution
Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. This study made statistical projections of changes in ocean wave heights using sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global climate models for the 21st century. The results show significant wave height increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes (south of 45 degrees S). Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the rising high concentration pathwaythe RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one in 10 year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world. These wave height increases are primarily driven by increased SLP gradients and hence increased surface wind energy.
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