期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 41, 期 24, 页码 8853-8861出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062409
关键词
extreme events; CMIP5; carbon cycle
资金
- project GEOCARBON of the European Community [283080]
- Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
- Directorate For Geosciences [1048890] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1048890] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves affect terrestrial ecosystems and may alter local carbon budgets. However, it still remains uncertain to what degree extreme impacts in the carbon cycle influence the carbon cycle-climate feedback both today and the near future. Here we analyze spatiotemporally contiguous negative extreme anomalies in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in model output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble and investigate their future development and attribution to climatic drivers. We find that relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake, negative extremes in GPP and NEP lose importance toward the end of the 21st century. This effect can be related to elevated CO2 concentrations and higher amounts of available water at the global scale, partially mitigating the impacts of droughts and heat waves, respectively. Overall, based on CMIP5 models, we hypothesize that terrestrial ecosystems might be more resilient against future climate extremes than previously thought. Future work will have to further scrutinize these results considering that various biological and biogeochemical feedbacks are not yet integrated within Earth system models.
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