期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 41, 期 16, 页码 5951-5959出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061356
关键词
sea-level change; detection & attribution; CMIP5
资金
- CSIRO Office of the Chief Executive Postdoctoral Fellowship
- Australian Climate Change Science Program
Changes in sea level are driven by a range of natural and anthropogenic forcings. To better understand the response of global mean thermosteric sea level change to these forcings, we compare three observational data sets to experiments of 28 climate models with up to five different forcing scenarios for 1957-2005. We use the preindustrial control runs to determine the internal climate variability. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are required to explain the magnitude of the observed changes, while natural forcing drives most of the externally forced variability. The experiments that include anthropogenic and natural forcings capture the observed increased trend toward the end of the twentieth century best. The observed changes can be explained by scaling the natural-only experiment by 0.70 0.30 and the anthropogenic-only experiment (including opposing forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols) by 1.08 0.13(2 sigma).
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据