Wild forest fire regime following land abandonment in the Mediterranean region

Land use, climate, and fire have markedly shaped Mediterranean ecosystems. While climate and land use are external forcing, wildfire is an integral component of ecosystem functioning which inevitably poses a threat to humans. With a view to gaining an insight into the mechanisms underlying fire dynamics, fire control, and prevention, we formulated a model that predicts the wildfire regime in fire-prone Mediterranean ecoregions. The model is based on the positive feedback between forest expansion following cropland abandonment, fuel abundance, and fire. Our results demonstrate that progressive land abandonment leads to different fire dynamics in the Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Starting at a no-fire regime when the land is almost completely cultivated, the ecosystem reaches a chaotic fire regime, passing through intermediate land development stages characterized by limit cycle fire dynamics. Wildfires are more devastating, albeit more predictable, in these intermediate stages when fire frequency is higher.