期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 40, 期 10, 页码 2411-2416出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50454
关键词
predictability; regimes; jets
资金
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Weather directorate, a collaborative center of the Natural Environment Research Council
- Natural Environment Research Council [ncas10003] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [ncas10003] Funding Source: UKRI
The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split, it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that, as the jet weakens or splits, it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据