期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 40, 期 10, 页码 2284-2289出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50388
关键词
Kawasaki disease; El Nino-Southern oscillation; El Nino and La Nina; tropospheric winds; tropical-extratropical teleconnections; surface ocean conditions
资金
- La Marato de TV3 [081910]
- Catalan Ministry of Innovation and Science
- National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, Blood Institute [HL69413]
- NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments through the California Applications program
- ICREA Funding Source: Custom
Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children worldwide. Recently, a climatological study suggested that KD may be triggered by a windborne agent traveling across the north Pacific through the westerly wind flow prevailing at midlatitudes. Here we use KD records to describe the association between enhanced disease activity on opposite sides of the basin and different phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, via the linkage to these tropospheric winds. Results show that years with higher-than-normal KD cases in Japan preferentially occur during either El Nino Modoki or La Nina conditions, while in San Diego during the mature phase of El Nino or La Nina events. Given that ENSO offers a degree of predictability at lead times of 6 months, these modulations suggest that seasonal predictions of KD could be used to alert clinicians to periods of increased disease activity.
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