期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 40, 期 12, 页码 3163-3169出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50420
关键词
precipitation; global warming
资金
- Precipitation Measurement Missions (PMM)
- CMIP5 Diagnostic Project, Modeling and Analysis Program (MAP), NASA headquarters
- Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program [CATER 2012-2062]
- Korea Meteorological Administration [CATER-2012-2062] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7 +/- 2.4%K-1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5 +/- 0.6%K-1), more light precipitation (+1.8 +/- 1.3%K-1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7 +/- 2.1%K-1). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.
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