期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 40, 期 18, 页码 4900-4905出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50949
关键词
drought; seasonal forecast; climate model; predictability; ENSO; precipitation
资金
- NOAA Climate Program Office [NA10OAR4310246, NA12OAR4310090]
The capability of seasonal forecasting of global drought onset at local scales (1 degrees) has been investigated using multiple climate models with 110 realizations. Climate models increase the global mean probability of drought onset detection from the climatology forecast by 31%-81%, but only increase equitable threat score by 21%-50% due to a high false alarm ratio. The multimodel ensemble increases the drought detectability over some tropical areas where individual models have better performance, but cannot help more over most extratropical regions. On average, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with low potential predictability and weak antecedent El Nino-Southern Oscillation signal. Given the high false alarms, the reliability is very important for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. This raises the question of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset is essentially a stochastic forecasting problem.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据