期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 39, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053946
关键词
-
资金
- European Union [262330, 282862]
Various seismicity patterns before large earthquakes have been reported in the literature. They include foreshocks (medium-term acceleration and short-term activation), quiescence, doughnut patterns and event migration. The existence of these precursory patterns is however debated. Here, we develop an approach based on the concept of stress accumulation to unify and categorize all claimed seismic precursors in a same physical framework. We first extend the Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory (N-C PAST), which already explains most precursors, to additionally include short-term activation. Theoretical results are then compared to the time series observed prior to the 2009 M-w = 6.3 L'Aquila, Italy, earthquake. We finally show that different precursory paths are possible before large earthquakes, with possible coupling of different patterns or non-occurrence of any. This is described by a logic tree defined from the combined probabilities of occurrence of the main-shock at a given stress state and of precursory silent slip on the fault. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake, the observed precursory path is coupling of quiescence and accelerating seismic release, followed by activation. These results provide guidelines for future research on earthquake predictability. Citation: Mignan, A. (2012), Seismicity precursors to large earthquakes unified in a stress accumulation framework, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21308, doi:10.1029/2012GL053946.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据