Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum

The past two decades saw a steady decrease of summer Arctic sea ice extent. The 2007 value was yet considerably lower than expected from extrapolating the long-term trend. We present a quantitative analysis of this extraordinary event based on the adjoint of a coupled ocean-sea ice model. This new approach allows to efficiently assess the sensitivity of the ice-covered area in September 2007 with respect to any potential influence factor. We can trace back 86% of the ice area reduction to only four of these factors: May and June wind conditions, September 2-meter temperature, and March ice thickness. Two thirds of the reduction are determined by factors that are already known at the end of June, suggesting a high potential for an early prediction. Citation: Kauker, F., T. Kaminski, M. Karcher, R. Giering, R. Gerdes, and M. Vossbeck (2009), Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03707, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036323.