Exploring German Bight coastal morphodynamics based on modelled bed shear stress

The prediction of large-scale coastal and estuarine morphodynamics requires a sound understanding of the relevant driving processes and forcing factors. Data- and process-based methods and models suffer from limitations when applied individually to investigate these systems and, therefore, a combined approach is needed. The morphodynamics of coastal environments can be assessed in terms of a mean bed elevation range (BER), which is the difference of the lowest to highest seabed elevation occurring within a defined time interval. In this study of the coastal sector of the German Bight, North Sea, the highly variable distribution of observed BER for the period 1984-2006 is correlated to local bed shear stresses based on hindcast simulations with a well-validated high-resolution (typically 1,000 m in coastal settings) process-based numerical model of the North Sea. A significant correlation of the 95th percentile of bed shear stress and BER was found, explaining between 49 % and 60 % of the observed variance of the BER under realistic forcing conditions. The model then was applied to differentiate the effects of three main hydrodynamic drivers, i.e. tides, wind-induced currents, and waves. Large-scale mapping of these model results quantify previous qualitative suggestions: tides act as main drivers of the East Frisian coast, whereas waves are more relevant for the morphodynamics of the German west coast. Tidal currents are the main driver of the very high morphological activity of the tidal channels of the Ems, Weser and Elbe estuaries, the Jade Bay, and tidal inlets between the islands. This also holds for the backbarrier tidal flats of the North Frisian Wadden Sea. The morphodynamics of the foreshore areas of the barrier island systems are mainly wave-driven; in the deeper areas tides, waves and wind-driven currents have a combined effect. The open tidal flats (outer Ems, Neuwerker Watt, Dithmarschen Bight) are affected by a combination of tides, wind-driven currents and waves. Model performance should be measurably improved by integrating the roles of other key drivers, notably sediment dynamics and salt marsh stabilisation.