Joint Inference of Microsatellite Mutation Models, Population History and Genealogies Using Transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We provide a framework for Bayesian coalescent inference from microsatellite data that enables inference of population history parameters averaged over microsatellite mutation models. To achieve this we first implemented a rich family of microsatellite mutation models and related components in the software package BEAST. BEAST is a powerful tool that performs Bayesian MCMC analysis on molecular data to make coalescent and evolutionary inferences. Our implementation permits the application of existing non-parametric methods to microsatellite data. The implemented microsatellite models are based on the replication slippage mechanism and focus on three properties of microsatellite mutation: length dependency of mutation rate, mutational bias toward expansion or contraction, and number of repeat units changed in a single mutation event. We develop a new model that facilitates microsatellite model averaging and Bayesian model selection by transdimensional MCMC. With Bayesian model averaging, the posterior distributions of population history parameters are integrated across a set of microsatellite models and thus account for model uncertainty. Simulated data are used to evaluate our method in terms of accuracy and precision of theta estimation and also identification of the true mutation model. Finally we apply our method to a red colobus monkey data set as an example.