Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North-West Europe under different sustainability constraints

The expected use of solid biomass for large-scale heat and power production across North-West Europe (NW EU) has led to discussions about its sustainability, especially due to the increasing import dependence of the sector. While individual Member States and companies have put forward sustainability criteria, it remains unclear how different requirements will influence the availability and cost of solid biomass and thus how specific regions will satisfy their demand in a competitive global market. We combined a geospatially explicit least-cost biomass supply model with a linear optimization solver to assess global solid biomass trade streams by 2020 with a particular focus on NW EU. We apply different demand and supply scenarios representing varying policy developments and sustainability requirements. We find that the projected EU solid biomass demand by 2020 can be met across all scenarios, almost exclusively via domestic biomass. The exploitation of domestic agricultural residue and energy crop potentials, however, will need to increase sharply. Given sustainability requirements for solid biomass as for liquid biofuels, extra-EU imports may reach 236 PJ by 2020, i.e., 400% of their 2010 levels. Intra-EU trade is expected to grow with stricter sustainability requirements up to 548 PJ, i.e., 280% of its 2010 levels by 2020. Increasing sustainability requirements can have different effects on trade portfolios across NW EU. Excluding pulpwood pellets may drive the supply costs of import dependent countries, foremost the Netherlands and the UK, whereas excluding additional forest biomass may entail higher costs for Germany and Denmark which rely on regional biomass. Excluding solid biomass fractions may create short-term price hikes. Our modeling results are strongly influenced by parameterization choices, foremost assumed EU biomass supply volumes and costs and assumed relations between criteria and supply. The model framework is suited for the inclusion of dynamic supply-demand interactions and other world regions.