Instability in a marginal coral reef: the shift from natural variability to a human-dominated seascape

As global climate change drives the demise of tropical reef ecosystems, attention is turning to the suitability o refuge habitat. For the Great Barrier Reef, are there historically stable southern refugia where corals from th north might migrate as climate changes? To address this question, we present a precise chronology of margina coral reef development from Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia. Our chronology shows that ree growth was episodic, responding to natural environmental variation throughout the Holocene, and tha Moreton Bay was inhospitable to corals for about half of the past 7000 years. The only significant change ii coral species composition occurred between similar to 200 and similar to 50 years ago, following anthropogenic alterations of th, bay and its catchments. Natural historical instability of reefs, coupled with environmental degradation sinc, European colonization, suggests that Moreton Bay offers limited potential as refuge habitat for reef species or human time scales.