期刊
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
卷 294, 期 -, 页码 54-61出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022
关键词
Wildland fire; Climate change; Fire severity; Fire season length; Fire weather; Fire management
类别
We used Cumulative Severity Rating (CSR), a weather-based fire danger metric, to examine the potential influence of climate change on global fire season severity. The potential influence of climate change on fire season length was also addressed. We used three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios to calculate the CSR and fire season length for mid-century (2041-2050) and late century (2091-2100) relative to the 1971-2000 baseline. Our results suggest significant increases in the CSR for all models and scenarios. Increases were greatest (more than three times greater than the baseline CSR) for the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the century. Fire season length changes were also most pronounced at the end of the century and for northern high latitudes where fire season lengths will increase by more than 20 days per year. The implications from this study are that fire seasons will be more severe in future and that conventional fire management approaches may no longer be effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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