From seedlings to trees: Using ontogenetic models of growth and survivorship to assess long-term (>100 years) dynamics of a neotropical dry forest

Long-term tree and seedling growth and survivorship data from permanent sample plots established in a neotropical dry forest in Jamaica from 1998 to 2008 were used to (1) model growth (periodic annual increment) and survivorship dynamics, (2) cluster structural and functional types, and (3) estimate the age of selected tropical dry forest tree species. A statistical comparison of parameter estimates derived from a generalized linear model (GLM) of each species to a reference species was used to group individuals based on size (DBH and height), and demographic dynamics (periodic annual increment and survivorship). We identified two groups of species based on structural types (canopy and sub-canopy species), three groups of species based on periodic annual increment (fast, intermediate, and slow growing) and four groups of species based on the probability of survivorship of seedlings and trees (very low probability of seedling survivorship but high tree survivorship (two groups); high survivorship throughout the DBH classes; very low survivorship, regardless of stem size). The composition of the groups was mixed, and included individuals of both structural types, and with different periodic annual increment and survival probabilities. The dichotomy of guilds found in tropical rainforests (pioneer and climax species) was not found in this forest. Individual and group GLMs incorporating empirical relationships between periodic annual increment and survivorship, across a spectrum of ontogenies and DBH's, were also generated. The periodic annual increment models were then used to estimate the time taken by a newly germinated seedling to reach the largest recorded DBH. The fastest growing species was the hemi-cryptophyte Clusia flava which was estimated to take 74 years to reach its maximum recorded size (12.1 cm DBH), whereas the slowest growing species, Ziziphus sarcomphalus, was estimated to take 399 years to reach its maximum size (24.4 cm DBH). These dry forest trees were estimated to reach their maximum size (which was one-half or one-third of the largest DBH recorded for tropical rainforests) in a time similar to tropical rainforest trees. Some of the tree species are ubiquitous to other neotropical dry forests; therefore, our equations for periodic annual increment and survivorship can be applied elsewhere in the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.