Shift in Plant Species Composition Reveals Environmental Changes During the Last Decades: A Long-Term Study in Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Forests in Bavaria, Germany

Changes in vegetation composition due to the increasing temperatures in the past few decades have already been reported from several parts of Europe. It has been shown that single species move either northwards or to higher elevations. We expected that the species composition of forest stands should also have changed, i.e., an increase of thermophilous species. Another site factor changing for decades is nitrogen availability; we therefore also expected an increase of nitrophilous species, which was one main result in former long-term studies. We studied the species composition of beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests in southern Germany (Bavaria), comparing old (from 1949 to 1985) and young (2010) phytosociological relev,s. Ellenberg indicator values representing plant species specific environmental factors combined with climatic data were used in a partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA) for vegetation comparisons. Changes in plant species composition were analyzed considering species frequency, distribution of Ellenberg indicator values, shares of i) non-native plants and ii) tree, shrub and herbaceous species. Contrary to our expectations, global warming in Bavaria during the past decades resulted only in an explained dispersion of 5 % in the species composition. On the species level, an overall increase of thermophilous walnut tree saplings (Juglans regia) was conspicuous in some study areas. Nitrophilous species, however, generally increased in frequency throughout the study areas. Throughout Bavaria the most significant change was a striking increase of juvenile tree species and a decrease of herbaceous species. Up to now the increased nitrogen input into forests had a stronger provable influence on species composition shift than the global warming of the last decades. Additionally general changes in forest management also had effects on forest species. Therefore community reorganization mirroring temperature factors in beech forests in central Europe seems to be only at its very beginning.