Something for nothing? Reconstruction of ancestral character states in asterinid sea star development

Traits from early development mapped onto phylogenetic trees can potentially offer insight into the evolutionary history of development by inferring the states of those characters among ancestors at nodes in the phylogeny. A key and often-overlooked aspect of such mapping is the underlying model of character evolution. Without a well-supported and realistic model (nothing), character mapping of ancestral traits onto phylogenetic trees might often return results (something) that lack a sound basis. Here we reconsider a challenging case study in this area of evolutionary developmental biology: the inference of ancestral states for ecological and morphological characters in the reproduction and larval development of asterinid sea stars. We apply improved analytical methods to an expanded set of asterinid phylogenetic data and developmental character states. This analysis shows that the new methods might generally offer some independent insight into choice of a model of character evolution, but that in the specific case of asterinid sea stars the quantitative features of the model (especially the relative probabilities of different directions of change) have an important effect on the results. We suggest caution in applying ancestral state reconstructions in the absence of an independently corroborated model of character evolution, and highlight the need for such modeling in evolutionary developmental biology.