期刊
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
卷 218, 期 2, 页码 530-537出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.050
关键词
(I) Decision support system; (D) OR in societal problem analysis; Cry wolf syndrome; Disaster warning issuance conditions
This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect cry wolf' syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the cry wolf' syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据