Effect of tree-level airborne laser-scanning measurement accuracy on the timing and expected value of harvest decisions

The objective was to compare tree-level airborne laser-scanning (ALS) data accuracy with standwise estimation data accuracy as input data for forest planning, using tree- and stand-level simulators. The influence of the input data accuracy was studied with respect to (1) timing of the next thinning or clear-cutting and (2) the relative variation in the predicted income of the next logging expressed as the net present value (NPV). The timing and predicted NPV of thinning and clear-cutting operations were considered separately. The research was based on Monte Carlo simulations carried out with the tree- and stand-level simulators using a simulation and optimisation (SIMO) framework. The simulations used treewise measurements taken on 270 circular plots measured at the Evo Field Station, Finland, as input data. Deviations in the tree data measured were generated according to the mean standard errors found in standwise field estimation and tree-level ALS. The accuracy factors of ALS individual tree detection were based on the EUROSDR/ISPRS Tree Extraction Project. The results show that input data accuracy significantly affects both the timing and relative NPV of loggings. Tree-level ALS produces more accurate simulation results than standwise estimation with the error levels assumed. Diameter-based characteristics are the most important input data in all simulations. Accurate tree height estimates cannot be fully utilised in current simulators.