期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 141, 期 2, 页码 269-276出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268812000544
关键词
Climate - impact of; salmonellosis
资金
- German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
- WHO/Europe
Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0-2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 degrees C was associated with a 2.04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25-3.84], 1.84% (95% CI 0.06-3.63) and 2.32% (95% CI 0.38-4.27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0.24% (95% CI 0.02-0.46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.
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