期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 140, 期 5, 页码 851-857出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268811001063
关键词
Epidemics; geographical information systems; infectious disease epidemiology; haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
资金
- Ministry of Science and Technology, China [2003DIA6N009, 2008ZX10004-010]
The monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004-2009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30-50 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) 12 model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0.0133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes.
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