期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
卷 46, 期 6, 页码 3076-3084出版社
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/es204514f
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资金
- U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL)
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [949710] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
This paper examines the cost of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. Existing studies employ a broad range of assumptions and lack a consistent costing method. This study takes a more systematic approach to analyze plants with an amine-based postcombustion CCS system with 90% CO2 capture. We employ sensitivity analyses together with a probabilistic analysis to quantify costs for plants with and without CCS under uncertainty or variability in key parameters. Results for new baseload plants indicate a likely increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $20-32/MWh (constant 2007$) or $22-40/MWh in current dollars. A risk premium for plants with CCS increases these ranges to $23-39/MWh and $25-46/MWh, respectively. Based on current cost estimates, our analysis further shows that a policy to encourage CCS at new NGCC plants via an emission tax or carbon price requires (at 95% confidence) a price of at least $125/t CO2 to ensure NGCC-CCS is cheaper than a plant without CCS. Higher costs are found for nonbaseload plants and CCS retrofits.
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