Oil palm plantations in Colombia: a model of future expansion

Biofuels are promoted worldwide as an alternative for the replacement of fossil fuels, especially in the transportation sector, although the extent to which biofuels can meet this need is unclear. Currently, oil palm is the most important crop used for biodiesel production in the world. The growth of oil palm plantations in Asia has often occurred at the expense of forest areas creating environmental concerns. Colombia is the fifth largest oil palm grower worldwide, and policies that provide subsidies have been enacted to ensure that Colombia plays an important role in future biodiesel markets. At that same time, many sectors of society are concerned that the negative effects of biofuels may be worse than the benefits. In this paper we analyze the land use transitions generated by the expansion of oil palm crops between 2002 and 2008; we identify the factors associated with the expansion and project the future expansion of plantations in Colombia by applying spatial regression analysis and econometric models. To model future expansion, we started with a map of oil palm plantations in 2008. An econometric model that incorporates the impact of governmental policies (normative and economic that support the biofuel sector) through a Time Series Intervention Model Analysis was used to estimate the cultivated area in 2020. To spatially project these estimates a spatial logistic regression model that incorporates biophysical and socioeconomic variables was used. Finally, future land use transitions associated with the expansion of oil palm plantations were analyzed. The results show that present and future oil palm expansion is concentrated in areas dominated by pastures, and to a lesser extent areas that are a mix of agricultural land and natural forests. Our results also suggest that it is highly unlikely that the government will reach its goal of over 3 million hectares of oil palm plantations by 2020 and the goal of biodiesel blends supplying 20% of the national fuel needs. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.