期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
卷 33, 期 -, 页码 120-132出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.04.009
关键词
Land-use changes; Climate change; Biodiversity indicators; Birds; Agricultural policy
The use of forward scenarios to forecast the environmental implications of potential changes in climate and land use is a useful tool for policy development. In this paper, we projected the potential responses of bird communities to both climate and agricultural changes. We created four scenarios of agricultural changes (current trends, biofuel development, livestock extensification and agricultural extensification), each developed at national or regional level of policy-making. We further considered three climatic scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) from among the IPCC 4th Assessment Report scenarios. We assessed changes in bird communities based on the predicted changes in agricultural land use and climatic suitability using various indicators, including the European Farmland Bird Indicator (FBI) and the Community Specialisation Index (CSI). We found that trends in the different indicators differed greatly from each other depending on the agricultural scenarios and policy-making scale. Our results suggest that public policies that promote extensive agricultural practices are more appropriate for improving the fate of bird communities in agricultural landscapes, especially with the regionalisation of agricultural policy. These results provide a readily accessible visualisation of the potential impacts of land use and climate change on farmland bird communities. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据