期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 8, 期 2, 页码 -出版社
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024033
关键词
anthropogenic aerosol; temperature hiatus; decadal
资金
- PAGODA project of the Changing Water Cycle programme of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/I006672/1]
- joint DECC/DEFRA Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA0110]
- NERC [NE/I006672/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I006672/1, ncas10009] Funding Source: researchfish
Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol-cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales.
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