期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 8, 期 3, 页码 -出版社
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033
关键词
climate change mitigation; 2 degrees C target; delayed climate policy; low-carbon technologies
资金
- German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) [UFOPLAN FKZ 3710 41 135]
While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 degrees C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to similar to 0.4 degrees C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to similar to 0.3 degrees C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 degrees C target within reach.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据