期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 8, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019
关键词
flood risk; global modelling; global scale; flooding; risk assessment
资金
- VENI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
- Directorate of International Cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands
- European Union FP7 ENHANCE project
Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $ 19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($ 1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures.
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