期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 8, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032
关键词
carbon cycle; drought; uncertainty; vulnerability
资金
- EU [GA 226701]
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh010023] Funding Source: researchfish
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series-modelled or measured-of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.
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