How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?

The factors governing the rate of change in the amount of atmospheric water vapor are analyzed in simulations of climate change. The global-mean amount of water vapor is estimated to increase at a differential rate of 7.3% K-1 with respect to global-mean surface air temperature in the multi-model mean. Larger rates of change result if the fractional change is evaluated over a finite change in temperature (e.g., 8.2% K-1 for a 3 K warming), and rates of change of zonal-mean column water vapor range from 6 to 12% K-1 depending on latitude. Clausius-Clapeyron scaling is directly evaluated using an invariant distribution of monthly-mean relative humidity, giving a rate of 7.4% K-1 for global-mean water vapor. There are deviations from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of zonal-mean column water vapor in the tropics and mid-latitudes, but they largely cancel in the global mean. A purely thermodynamic scaling based on a saturated troposphere gives a higher global rate of 7.9% K-1. Surface specific humidity increases at a rate of 5.7% K-1, considerably lower than the rate for global-mean water vapor. Surface specific humidity closely follows Clausius-Clapeyron scaling over ocean. But there are widespread decreases in surface relative humidity over land (by more than 1% K-1 in many regions), and it is argued that decreases of this magnitude could result from the land/ocean contrast in surface warming.