Can ethanol alone meet California's low carbon fuel standard? An evaluation of feedstock and conversion alternatives

The feasibility of meeting California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) using ethanol from various feedstocks is assessed. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, direct agricultural land use, petroleum displacement directly due to ethanol blending, and production costs for a number of conventional and lignocellulosic ethanol pathways are estimated under various supply scenarios. The results indicate that after considering indirect land use effects, all sources of ethanol examined, except Midwest corn ethanol, are viable options to meet the LCFS. However, the required ethanol quantity depends on the GHG emissions performance and ethanol availability. The quantity of ethanol that can be produced from lignocellulosic biomass resources within California is insufficient to meet the year 2020 LCFS target. Utilizing lignocellulosic ethanol to meet the LCFS is more attractive than utilizing Brazilian sugarcane ethanol due to projected lower direct agricultural land use, dependence on imported energy, ethanol cost, required refueling infrastructure modifications and penetration of flexible fuel E85 vehicles. However, advances in cellulosic ethanol technology and commercial production capacity are required to support moderate- to large-scale introduction of low carbon intensity cellulosic ethanol. Current cellulosic ethanol production cost estimates suffer from relatively high uncertainty and need to be refined based on commercial scale production data when available.