期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 61, 期 -, 页码 458-476出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.02.006
关键词
Real-time forecasts; Integrated model; Marine water quality; Three-dimensional hydrodynamics; MIKE; Catchment modelling
类别
资金
- INTERREG 4A (Ireland and Wales) project
This paper presents a new marine water quality forecasting system for real-time and short-term predictions. The forecasting system comprises an integrated catchment-coastal model and a database management system. The integrated model is validated in an Irish catchment-coastal system using hydrodynamic and water quality data. The forecasting system was then used to provide short-term and real-time forecasts of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Intestinal Enterococci concentrations (IE) in the near-shore coastal waters of Bray, Ireland. Two hind-cast scenarios were simulated: 5F in which predictions were based on rainfall forecasts only; and I-5F where forecasts of 5F were improved by incorporating real-time data. Results indicate that predictions of E. coli of scenario I-5F are improved. Also predicted IE concentrations by Scenario 5F were comparably higher than the I-5F predications, but due to the wide scatter of observed IE concentrations, the superiority of one scenario over the second could not be definitively determined. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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