期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 35, 期 -, 页码 92-103出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.012
关键词
Social simulation; Land-use modeling; Urban shrinkage; SD; CA; ABM
类别
资金
- EU [036921, 225193]
Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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