期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 38, 期 -, 页码 296-305出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.06.012
关键词
Scenario planning; Global climate change; Protected area management; Uncertainty
类别
资金
- Warner College of Natural Resources Center
- DOI National Park Service
This qualitative case study presents an in-depth evaluation of the scenario planning process, and an exploration of factors influencing its use as an environmental decision making model. The authors explore how decision-makers and scientists within the National Park Service (NPS) used scenario planning to negotiate the social and scientific uncertainty associated with climate change through the lens of systems innovation theory and organizational resilience. Key factors influencing the modeling process included: (1) challenging assumptions, (2) bounding scenarios, (3) validating science and scenarios, and (4) negotiating the degree of science certainty about climate change necessary for adaptive natural resource management. Ultimately, the scenario planning process served as more than a decision making model; it encouraged exploratory dialogue about critical uncertainties and risks that the NPS managers may face in an era of rapid climate change. It is through such dialogue that organizational resilience is nurtured and innovations are adopted and institutionalized for a more adept agency response to high risk and high uncertainty changes such as climate change effects on a protected area's landscape. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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