期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 24, 期 7, 页码 798-808出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010
关键词
Alternative futures; Decision-making; Scenario analysis; Scenarios; Scenario planning; Uncertainty
类别
资金
- US National Science Foundation Science
- Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) [EAR-9876800]
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据