An inductive design exploration method for hierarchical systems design under uncertainty

Model structure uncertainty, originating from assumptions and idealizations in modelling processes, is a form of uncertainty that is often hard to quantify. In this article, the authors propose and demonstrate a method, the inductive design exploration method (IDEM), which facilitates robust design in the presence of model structure uncertainty. The approach in this method is achieving robustness by compromising between the degree of system performance and the degree of reliability based on structure uncertainty associated with system models (i.e. models for performances and constraints). The main strategies in the IDEM include: (i) identifying feasible ranged sets of design space instead of single (or optimized) design solution, considering all types of quantifiable uncertainties and (ii) systematically compromising target achievement with provision for potential uncertainty. The IDEM is successfully demonstrated in a clay-filled polyethylene cantilever beam design example, which is a simple but representative example of integrated materials and product design problems.