期刊
ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY
卷 7, 期 2, 页码 162-168出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2011.603021
关键词
Hubbert linearization; normalized Gompertz; normalized logistics; peak oil
The Hubbert linearization and normalizations for the rate of change of production have been used to depict the trends of oil production via the logistic and Gompertz models. Estimated cumulative production based upon the Hubbert linearization of the oil history indicates a total ultimately recoverable resource (URR) for all liquids of 2.6 terabarrels (Tb). The Gompertz URR is projected to be near 4 Tb for all liquids including non-traditional sources. The normalization of the change of rate of oil production to the rate of production shows a peak potential of 95 million barrels production per day based on the projected URR of 2.6 Tb. The United States Geological Survey estimate of 2.5 Tb URR most closely approximates the projected 2.6 Tb URR.
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