期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 68, 期 -, 页码 60-69出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.035
关键词
China; Renewable energy; CO2 emissions; CGE modeling
资金
- French Development Agency (AFD)
- Eni S.p.A.
- ICF International
- Shell
- Ministry of Science and Technology of China through the Institute for Energy, Environment, and Economy at Tsinghua University
- Graduate School of Tsinghua University
- Rio Tinto China
- Social Science Key Research Program from the National Social Science Foundation of China [09ZD029]
- MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
- U.S. Department of Energy [DE-FG02-94ER61937]
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-FG02-94ER61937] Funding Source: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
China has adopted targets for developing renewable electricity that would require expansion on an unprecedented scale. During the period from 2010 to 2020, we find that current renewable electricity targets result in significant additional renewable energy installation and a reduction in cumulative CO2 emissions of 1.8% relative to a No Policy baseline. After 2020, the role of renewables is sensitive to both economic growth and technology cost assumptions. Importantly, we find that the CO2 emissions reductions due to increased renewables are offset in each year by emissions increases in non-covered sectors through 2050. We consider sensitivity to renewable electricity cost after 2020 and find that if cost falls due to policy or other reasons, renewable electricity share increases and results in slightly higher economic growth through 2050. However, regardless of the cost assumption, projected CO2 emissions reductions are very modest under a policy that only targets the supply side in the electricity sector. A policy approach that covers all sectors and allows flexibility to reduce CO2 at lowest cost - such as an emissions trading system - will prevent this emissions leakage and ensure targeted reductions in CO2 emissions are achieved over the long term. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据