期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 65, 期 -, 页码 185-197出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.032
关键词
Integration of renewable energies; Stochastic optimization; Scenario analysis
The ongoing transformation of the European energy system comes along with new challenges, notably increasing amounts of power generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar. How current objectives for emission reduction can be reached in the future and what the future power system will look like is, however, not fully clear. In particular, power plant investments in the long run and power plant dispatch in the short run are subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore an approach is presented which allows electricity market development to be assessed in the presence of stochastic power feed-in and endogenous investments in power plants and renewable energies. To illustrate the range of possible future developments, five scenarios for the European electricity system up to 2050 are investigated. Both generation investments and dispatch as well as utilization of transmission lines are optimized for these scenarios and additional sensitivity analyses are carried out. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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