期刊
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
卷 84, 期 -, 页码 122-132出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2014.04.012
关键词
Electricity pricing; Generalized Pareto Distribution; Neural net; Time series modeling
Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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