期刊
ENERGIES
卷 3, 期 2, 页码 241-257出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/en3020241
关键词
wind turbine; reliability; stochastic model; reliability level
资金
- EU [019945]
- Danish Research Agency [2104-05-0075]
Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e. g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric ( physical uncertainty) or epistemic ( statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.
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