Prognostic factors of long-term outcome in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

Neuroendocrine tumours (NET) of the gastroenteropancreatic system comprise a malignant entity with a low incidence. Only limited information is available on long-term clinical outcome and clinically applicable prognostic factors. We performed a retrospective analysis of a large, well-characterized centre-based patient cohort of 399 patients with histologically proven NET. Data were analysed according to epidemiological, clinical and histopathological characteristics. Detailed survival analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method were performed. Prognostic factors were tested by log-rank testing and independent risk factors were analysed using a Cox regression model. In the studied cohort, primary tumours originated in the fore-, mid- and hindgut in 46.1, 37.1 and 4.5% respectively. Extra-intestinal or unknown primary tumours were present in 8.4 and 10.5% respectively. Distant metastasis was present at initial diagnosis in 69.4%. Most frequent metastatic sites were liver (85%), peritoneal cavity (18%), bones (8%), other intra-abdominal sites (6%) and lungs (4%). Overall, 5- and 10-year survival rates were 78 and 63% respectively. Time to progression after initial diagnosis was significantly shorter in pancreatic as compared with ileal NET. Survival analysis revealed significantly better clinical outcome for primary tumours; smaller than 25 mm, absence of metastasis, absence of any clinical symptoms, positive immunohistochemical staining for chromogranin A and a lower Ki67 index. These results were confirmed as independent by multivariate analysis. Therefore, this large retrospective analysis of a well-documented cohort of patients with NET demonstrates Several prognostic factors of clinical relevance and wide availability, which should be considered for risk stratification in the management of NET.