期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 11, 期 5, 页码 450-460出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01160.x
关键词
alternative stable states; catastrophic regime shifts; ecological indicators; lake eutrophication; resilience; skewness; stability; tipping points; vegetation collapse; warning signals
类别
资金
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
- Division Of Materials Research [844115] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.
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