Elevated land runoff after European settlement perturbs persistent foraminiferal assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are under pressure from a variety of human-induced disturbances, but demonstration of ecosystem changes and identification of stressors are often difficult. We tested whether global change or increased agricultural runoff after European settlement of Northeast Australia (ca. 1860) has affected inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef. Eleven sediment cores were retrieved from inner reefs, intermediate reefs, and outer-island reefs, and benthic foraminiferal assemblages were analyzed in dated (C-14, Pb-210, Cs-137) core sections (N = 82 samples). Data were grouped into six age bands (<55, 55-150, 150-500, 500-1000, 1000-1500. and >1500 yr). Principal component analysis and two-factor (Zone and Age) permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) suggested that assemblages from the three zones were significantly different from each other over several millennia, with symbiont-bearing (mixotrophic) species dominating the outer reefs. A significant interaction term indicated that within-zone patterns varied. Assemblages in outer reefs unaffected from increased land runoff were persistent until present times. In both other zones, assemblages were also persistent until 150 yr ago, suggesting that benthic foraminiferal assemblages are naturally highly persistent over long (>2000 yr) timescales. Assemblages in core sections <55 yr old from inner reefs were significantly (post hoc t test) different from those older than 150 yr. Similarly, assemblages <55 yr old from intermediate reefs were significantly different compared to older assemblages. A multivariate regression tree (environmental variables: Zone and Age) explained 56.8% of the variance in foraminiferal assemblages and confirmed patterns identified by PERMANOVA. With some exceptions, changes on the inner and intermediate reefs were consistent with a model predicting that increased nutrients and higher turbidity enhance relative abundance of heterotrophic species. Given that assemblages did not change in outer-island reefs (not impacted by runoff) we argue that changes in assemblages due to global change can be rejected as an explanation. Thus, the findings are more consistent with the hypothesis that agricultural runoff since European settlement altered foraminiferal assemblages than with the hypothesis that global forcing caused changes.