Indicators of seabird reproductive performance demonstrate the impact of commercial fisheries on seabird populations in the North Sea

In a world of growing anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity, effective indicators need to be specific and sensitive to the pressures in the ecosystem concerned, yet be simple enough to be interpreted by non-experts and straightforward enough to facilitate routine monitoring. Globally, seabirds are under increasing pressure as a result of anthropogenic activities and environmental variation. Traditionally, seabird indicators have been based on abundance at breeding colonies. However, as many species do not reach sexual maturity for several years, and may not attend the colony over this time period, such indicators may fail to capture the ecological complexity of the system concerned. We constructed two indicators of the state of nine seabird species that breed along the UK coast of the North Sea: (i) abundance of seabirds at breeding colonies, and (ii) probability of seabird breeding failure. The indicators were significantly and strongly correlated with each other for eight out of nine species, but the abundance indicator typically lagged the indicator on seabird breeding failure by two to three years. We then considered a third indicator which compared kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) breeding success to the levels expected given the underlying environmental conditions; changes in the abundance indicator also lagged this by three years. We investigate how sensitive each of these indicators was to the impacts of fishing. We found that the species which had seen the greatest increases in breeding failure rate over the study period were those species which were most sensitive to fisheries pressure. By focussing on demographic parameters, and correcting for the underlying environmental conditions, we can detect potentially important population level changes at an earlier stage than by focussing on abundance alone. These indicators are able to more accurately capture the complexity of the ecosystem concerned and can be readily interpreted by policy-makers. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.