期刊
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
卷 24, 期 6, 页码 1505-1524出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1890/13-0499.1
关键词
connectivity; dispersal; gene flow; genetic differentiation; genetic diversity; landscape genetics; population viability; risk maps; Salvelinus confluentus; stream barrier; stream networks; vulnerability assessments
资金
- Department of the Interior Northwest Climate Science Center
- Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative
- USGS
- NSF [DEB 1067613, DEB 0742181, DGE-1313190]
- [DEB 1258203]
- [DEB 1050459]
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1258203] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1050459, 1067613] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced numbers in certain vulnerable populations. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web-based interactive mapping prototype, should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.
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