Spatial distribution as a measure of conservation needs: an example with Asiatic black bears in south-western China

Aim To create a fine-scale map of the distribution of Asiatic black bears, identify landscape variables affecting the spatial range of this species and assess population trends using presence-absence data and opinions of local villagers. Location Sichuan Province, south-western China. Methods We divided the province into 15 x 15 km cells, stratified them by forest cover, elevation and road density and randomly selected 494 cells (21% of province) for surveys. In each cell, we interviewed villagers and ground-verified their reports of bear presence. We ground-truthed reports of bear absence by conducting transects for bear sign in the best available habitat. We used logistic regression to identify key variables affecting presence of bears and predict their occurrence in unsampled cells. Results We detected bears in 360 cells (73%). Models correctly predicted bear occurrence in 90.3% of cells where we detected bears and 84.5% of sampled cells where bears were absent. Models predicted 42.7% of Sichuan to be occupied by bears. Bear occurrence was strongly related to forest cover throughout the province. Roads had a negative effect in western region of province. Agricultural lands had a negative effect only when they were distant from forests. Villagers were accurate in their knowledge of bear presence or absence. Interviewed villagers (n = 1816) thought that bears were increasing in 32%, stable in 10%, and decreasing in 58% of cells with bears. Where bear populations were perceived to be declining, villagers identified poaching as the most common cause. Main conclusions Our fine-scale distribution map can be used for future monitoring and the key landscape factors related to occupancy by bears can be used in management plans for this species. Interviewing local villagers is an efficient and reliable means of assessing distribution, and changes therein, for animals such as bears that often interact with people and leave obvious signs.